Lance Lynns knee injury isnt as serious as Garrett Crochets Tommy John surgery, but losing the former means Chicago will have to turn to either Vince Velasquez or Reynaldo Lpez until Johnny Cueto is ready to go. Oops. NHL 2022-23 Stanley Cup playoff chances and projected standings. And the As, well, they didnt have anyone good enough to lose, which is something! Losing Fernando Tatis Jr. for the first three months of the season puts them at a serious disadvantage, and they chose to make surprisingly few acquisitions over the offseason after two years of near-frenetic activity. Help Support FanGraphs. The Dodgers argument starts with Freeman and the four former MVPs on their roster; their record $286 million payroll has allowed them to amass huge amounts of talent. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The Rays will be the Rays, and theyll probably add two wins from random pitchers they pick up from indie leagues, but thats a bit out of ZiPS purview. Below are the projections for the New York Mets. Braves Hall of Fame profile: Bronson Arroyo. So how does ZiPS calculate the upcoming season? and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. With a strong rotation led by Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, it finally seems like Philadelphia has assembled the talent to break their 10-year playoff drought. This works for me if there is 162 games which is not looking like it. Also gotta remember that the rest of the Central teams (especially Twins) have payroll space. The success of ATC stems from minimizing parameter risk across the player pool, which you can read more about here. That doesn't leave much time to handicap 2022 MLB win totals. Projected lineup. ZiPS projects the Rockies to be better than only the Nationals, but I expect the Nats have a better idea of exactly where their team is than the Rockies do. Probably not. Despite all these new faces in Minnesota, the pitching staff still feels thin. Bryce Harpers return from elbow surgery is, of course, one of the real X factors thats hard to fully consider here. Ariel Cohen is a fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) and the Society of Actuaries (SOA). "@HaloDom47 Whatever it projected was thrown out of whack because of Rendons bitch ass and a lot of the injuries that happened to other players most notably Trout. If those additions can elevate the production of their pitching staff, and Trout, Ohtani, and Anthony Rendon can stay healthy, the Angels could have a shot at toppling the Astros in the AL West. If the goal was to sign him to an extension no matter what, then they should have signed some players to play with him this year and next, while his salary is still relatively low. That level of divisional chaos is sure to delight Jay Jaffe, my colleague and GM of Team Entropy or at least it would if MLB hadnt made the decision to eliminate tiebreaker games in 2022, going instead with NFL-style tiebreak procedures only. They also added Cole Sulser and Tanner Scott from the Orioles in a late-spring swap to improve a bullpen that is already sneaky good. While most other accumulation models apply equal weight to their underlying sources, ATC assigns weights based on historical performance. Signing Corey Seager and Marcus Semien is a great place to begin, though. They traded for Matt Olson and immediately signed him to an eight-year extension, giving them their long-term replacement at first base. Their starting rotation remains shockingly thin, especially if Brash or Kirby stumble upon their introduction to the majors. Hartstein went 68-50 ATS (58 percent) and 8-3 on money line . Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. This year? He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski. Not having Xander Bogaerts hurts the Red Sox quite a bit, but ZiPS already liked Boston better than their 2022 record and a few of the guys on the edge of the roster (Ceddanne Rafaela, Enmanuel Valdez) have fairly solid projections. Adley Rutschman should make his debut as soon as he returns from his spring arm injury, and its possible Grayson Rodriguez could follow soon after. Read the rest of this entry . Well start with Fangraphs. Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, Daniel Lynch, and Kris Bubic, who collectively comprise the Royals highly regarded first-round haul from 2018, have all made their major league debuts to varying degrees of disappointment. PECOTA, FanGraphs Projections MLB News Written By Staff on March 29, 2022 After the lockout, Major League Baseball's opening day is now April 7. Now, imagine a scenario in which Acua isnt quite ready, Ozuna is struggling, and the Braves have to field a designated hitter in addition to cobbling together whatever at first. If you start by looking at the offensive comps in the chart below, you can see how quickly things go downhill in the batters projections. Lets start with the good news first: Kansas Citys offense has several very interesting offensive players in the high minors. After applying the new strength of schedule calculations based on the other 29 teams, I end up with the standings for each of the million seasons. Read the rest of this entry . If the ChiSox are truly limited to $10M max (seriously? Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted No fucking way they are that low next year. Those additions might not have been as flashy as adding Carlos Correa or trading for Olson as some Yankees fans dreamed about, but it does give them a solid infield that should be vastly improved defensively. Still, the Guardians entire Opening Day lineup and starting rotation is under 30, and there are a handful of top prospects close to graduating from their farm system. Those three should give a significant boost to an offense thats floundered since the core of the 2015 championship team was broken up. Below are the projections for the Oakland Athletics. Texas, on the other hand, had an incredibly productive offseason, but the fact remains that this was an awful team entering the winter. Although he didnt pitch for Atlanta due to injury - and only spent six weeks in the organization - he was a key part of the Braves mid-2010s rebuild. Hes about half of their payroll now. JAWS and the 2023 Hall of Fame Ballot: Mike Napoli. Read the rest of this entry . The projections haven't figured out how to handle the Rays' brand of excessively deep roster construction. Instead, they tore everything down to the studs. So how does it work? Even though the projections dont see it, is there any doubt that their pitching staff will be one of the best run prevention units in all of baseball? Visit ESPN for the box score of the Toronto Raptors vs. Milwaukee Bucks NBA basketball game on January 17, 2023 All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Obviously ideally they would be generally good players who can thrive in Denver and just fall off less elsewhere. Below are the projections for the Miami Marlins. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer. The Padres would love to put the summer of 2021 behind them, but they just cant escape the bad vibes that saw them win just 18 games during the last two months of the season. They did sign Kendall Graveman and Joe Kelly during the offseason, but without Kimbrel or Crochet, the relief corps just isnt as deep as it could have been. I start by making a generalized depth chart, using our Depth Charts as an initial starting point. To support those two generational talents, the Angels focused on shoring up their biggest weakness during this stretch of frustration: their pitching staff. New for this year, Ive opted to include defense as a component, though its weighted less heavily than offense and pitching. Ariel was ranked by FantasyPros as the #1 fantasy baseball expert in 2019. Im looking forward to Adley Rutschman, Grayson Rodriguez, Cedric Mullins, and quickly changing the subject to the American League Central lest I have to think too much about this team. Which is why they were trying to trade him up until the last minute. Cardinals fans will have plenty to celebrate whether or not the team makes the playoffs; Yadier Molina and Albert Pujols have already announced that 2022 will be their last year in the majors, and Wainwright has heavily hinted at joining them in retirement after the season. With one major exception, most of the problems now are accuracy rather than bias. Every time I projected the Mariners this winter, they showed incremental improvement. Below are the previous parts. This would the same mistake that the Orioles made some years ago with Manny Machado and J.J. Hardy; for a handful of runs, the team would needlessly be lowering the ceiling on a franchise player. They also forecast a drop from 5.9 fWAR in 2022 to 3.3 in 2023. They use those projections to calculate how many runs a given team will score and allow over a full season, use that to come up with an expected winning percentage for each team, and then uses that winning percentage and run a Monte Carlo simulation for a full 162 games. That doesnt mean we should bank on it; Oakland has lost a lot of people who are really good at playing baseball. Trading for Randal Grichuk to do the same is a little less cool but still fun. His ATC Projections were ranked as the #1 most accurate projection system over the past three years (2019-2021). Still, if they make the playoffs in 2022 as close a certainty youll get in baseball these days theyll join the 19912005 Atlanta Braves and the 19952007 New York Yankees as the only teams in history to make the playoffs for an entire decade. Theres enough talent on the roster to be a nuisance to the other contenders in the NL East but not enough for the Nationals to be contenders themselves. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, And the pitching still goes pretty deep so its really hard to imagine that they are anywhere near the Royals next year, even in this state. Semien is a few years older, but after rightfully being a big part of the American League MVP race in two of the last three seasons, he starts off on a pretty high pedestal. ZiPS Projections 2023 2022 AL For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. The Angels are a lackluster team with a lackluster offseason, so they ended up with a lackluster projection. He's a switch-hitter with a hit/power combination that would probably make him an All-Star anywhere on the diamond, while also being a plus defender at the most demanding . After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. ZiPS then generates a million versions of each team in Monte Carlo fashion the computational algorithms, that is (no one is dressing up in a tuxedo and playing baccarat like James Bond). by Handedness, FanGraphs Power Rankings: Opening Day 2022, A Conversation With Yankees Rookie Right-hander Ron Marinaccio, With Lance Lynn Sidelined, the White Sox Turn to Johnny Cueto. On the pitching side of things, lingering elbow issues for Lance McCullers Jr. have made the depth of their rotation a question mark. Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Its a big bet on their player development group, which could pay dividends in a couple of years. Then theres the bad news: Kansas Citys offense has several very interesting offensive players in the high minors. Reservations are proceeded at phone no. Things may get worse before they get better, however, as theres no guarantee that either Sean Murphy or Ramn Laureano starts the season with Oakland. ZiPS is projecting a solid return for Ronald Acua Jr., but theres still some danger in that outfield. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a. But when I look at the offense, theres just not that much to complain about. Before we get to the 2023 ZiPS projections, theres still some unfinished work from 2022 to do. Im always tinkering with methodology, but most of the low-hanging fruit of predicting how teams do have already been harvested. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Nearly every major site has some form of power rankings, usually derived from whatever panel of experts each site employs. Cleveland is fairly unscathed, with the drop-off in wins reflecting a drop-off in the overall projections for the roster. Bobby Witt Jr. made the Opening Day roster, and MJ Melendez and Nick Pratto should be close behind him. Read the rest of this entry . Thats not to say their offseason was a failure. What I do see them doing in FA is what Francona loves: platoons at 1B, Dh, and CF. Below are the projections for the Texas Rangers. Now, the late-80s Braves eventually became the 90s Braves, something the Rangers are no doubt striving for, but getting from Point A to Point B isnt a route you can just put into your cars navigation system. ATC gives San Diego four fewer wins on the 2022 season equating to 60% odds of making the playoffs versus FGDCs 77%. They did bring back DeScalfani and Alex Wood and Logan Webb is a stud. The outfield depth just isnt that strong, especially with neither Cristian Pache nor Drew Waters having any kind of breakout years in Triple-A. I do think some of this projection is because Yoan Moncada was a mess but I dont think he will be that bad again. The White Sox remain the best team in the AL Central, and adding AJ Pollock balances out losing Craig Kimbrel (traded for Pollock) and Garrett Crochet (impending Tommy John surgery). All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. After all, they didnt even win their own division last year after taking the NL West eight years in a row. by Retrosheet. Entrance fee: 25 Lei. Ralph Garza Jr. and the Sometimes Sidearmers, Beat the Shift Podcast Catcher Episode w/ Vlad Sedler, Starting Pitchers Arent Leaning On Their Best Pitches. I remain on the record that I think the Tigers are better than ZiPS thinks, and its nice to see that Detroit isnt going to play games with Spencer Torkelsons playing time. Of the 10 bases-empty bunts that he attempted in 2022, eight went towards first base. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. As it is, theyll likely have to get excited in late May when Cruz has all of a sudden taken a big step forward defensively. Just need to make it a full 6. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Stored within ZiPS are the first through 99th percentile projections for each player. While the Guardians seem to be content to let their kids play in 2022, the Tigers went out and acquired a ton of talent to supplement their top prospects who are ready to graduate to the majors: Javier Bez, Eduardo Rodriguez, Meadows, and Tucker Barnhart. Follow Ariel on Twitter at @ATCNY. With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski. Outbidding Minnesota for Correa (or signing Trevor Story) would have been a more elegant and probably superior solution to the the Josh Donaldson trade, without adding significant money to the payroll. You may not think it significant but for Dolan to spend 8 figures in FA is. The 2022-23 Premier League fixtures. ), Cleveland will outspend them in add-ons. I dont think that theyll ever solve the hangover effect in the sense of substantially reducing the gap. As usual, dont hesitate to tweet us or comment below with fantasy questions. The projections actually see the Pirates having a halfway decent offense and Endy Rodriguez has a terrific projection but the rotation still projects rather poorly, as ZiPS remains frightened of Mitch Kellers plate discipline data. The last move giving Rodrguez the chance to start with the team may be the biggest source. Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors It was a sight to see. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. Rutschman is a complete, franchise-altering prospect, and one of the most exciting young players in the entire sport. These rankings, though, are entirely data driven. With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. That move alters the direction of the organization considerably. That makes it all the more baffling that the Angels havent finished a season above .500 since 2015 and have been to the playoffs just once in the last 12 years. Kirby Yates returns after a lackluster 2022 season in which he posted an ERA over 4.00, and the. These standings reflect everything through yesterdays Hunter Renfroe trade.
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